Final round fireworks predicted in Wellington club rugby

Tomorrow shapes up as perhaps one of the most dramatic days in Wellington club rugby in recent years.

In the bucqi Jubilee Cup every team - bar Marist St Pats' who are already qualified - is still alive heading into the final round robin matches so who will be playing next weekend, and even where those games will be, will only be determined tomorrow. Supporters will undoubtedly be out in force urging their side on while also searching for news of the goings on in the other matches.

There's no shortage of intrigue elsewhere. The fourth qualifiers and the locations of the Hardham Cup playoffs will also be found tomorrow, while in other grades playoff teams will start to be identified.

To help make sense of it all, a reminder on the WRFU's competition rules:

• If there is a tie between two teams that affects seeding, then first tie-breaker is the result of the round-robin match, with points-difference used only if that match was drawn.
• If three or more are tied then a mini-table method is used, counting only the results between the tied sides.

In the event two or more teams are tied for first in the Jubilee Cup standings, the Andy Leslie Trophy (awarded to the team that tops the round-robin) will be shared, but seeding for the playoffs will be determined using the rules above.

RadioSport (1503AM) will provide coverage of the day's action through Matt Buck and the Saturday Rugby Club team, with the featured game the pivotal Oriental-Rongotai vs Old Boys-University clash at the Polo Ground. Gordon Noble-Campbell will again have the call, joined by current OBU director of Rugby, 2016 Wellington U19 representative coach, and former professional player Isaac Fe'aunati. The dulcet tones of Adam Julian and a yet to be revealed comments person will echo from William Jones Park between Wainuiomata and Poneke on 1161AM and online to the world on tunein.com.

Lastly, kickoffs are 30 minutes earlier than usual this weekend due to the Hurricanes vs Sharks Super Rugby playoff game at Westpac Stadium.

bucqi Jubilee Cup

The magic number of competition points to guarantee a semifinals place is 20. Marist St Pat's are already there, and no matter how you slice it no more than 3 of the next five teams can reach that number tomorrow. The Upper Hutt Rams and Wellington need not only to win their matches, but will need other results to fall their way as well.

With the season ending tomorrow for four teams, it's unlikely that any quarter will be asked for or given, with what's at stake.

Sitting four points clear at the top of the ladder, Marist St Pat's (21 points) are in prime position to claim both top spot and the Andy Leslie Trophy outright when they take on Wellington (11) at Evans Bay. However they still need two points to make that a certainty, as anything less they run the risk of Oriental-Rongotai or Poneke (or even both!) passing them in the standings. At the opposite end of the ladder, the Axemen need a succession of results to go their way. Firstly they need to win and with a bonus point, and then for Upper Hutt to beat Tawa with neither getting bonus points, lastly for OBU and Wainuiomata to also lose and not get bonus points. If any of the latter three win or Upper Hutt does with a bonus-points, then they will be eliminated regardless.

MSP are mostly unchanged, with Ivan Fepuleai swapping in for Frankie Fa'atau at prop and skipper Isaac O'Connor starting from the bench. Wellington retains the same backline while Sam Gard'ner is amongst their changes up front. They won't be short of motivation, least of all the opportunity to capture the Bill Brien Challenge Cup - named for one of their club's greatest servants - and hold it for the summer.

Down the road the top two from the Swindale Shield will battle it out at the Polo Ground. For Oriental-Rongotai (17) its simple - if they win, they're in; for their opponents - Old Boys-University (15) - it's not quite as straightforward as they need to win with a bonus point to reach the guaranteed safety of the 20 point threshold. Any other outcome for either side and they will be nervously checking on events elsewhere.

The Magpies have only a pair of changes with Karl Dumelow back at lock and Ken Aperila preferred at openside, and coach Roy Kinikinilau once again suits up in midfield. The Goats get both Wes Goosen and Hugh Renton back this week, with Tom Fleming also amongst the eight changes from last week's side. The last meeting between the two was a top-of-the-table clash at Nairnville in the Swindale Shield, with a last-minute Maile Koloto try preserving OBU's then-unbeaten record by 25-24. The stakes tomorrow could barely be higher.

It's an almost identical situation out at William Jones Park. Wainuiomata (15) are in the same position as OBU, and Poneke (17) in the same as Ories, and as with those two any other result will mean sweating on other outcomes. Wainuiomata missed the playoffs last year, and would dearly love to replicate the success of their Women's team, while Poneke are in position to make the Jubilee Cup playoffs for the first time since 2011.

Wainuiomata have made a handful of changes; veteran's Justin Va'a and Greg Lealofi both return in the pack, as do Michael Lealava'a and Jason Love in the backline; just who takes the kicks at goal for them will be of interest with Josh Roberston-Weepu absent. For Poneke the trip to Wainuiomata may hold few fears, after all they've already won at William Jones this year having grabbed a 28-26 win all the way back on Opening Day. They make a single change to the side that beat Upper Hutt, with 250+ game veteran Misipalauni Moananu coming in to partner relative rookie Isaia Walker-Leaware at lock.

Lastly, there are the goings on out at the head of the valley where after making three trips down into the city, the Upper Hutt Rams (12) are back in the surroundings of Maidstone Park to take on Tawa (15). Three weeks ago Tawa looked dead and buried, having lost their opening three games and garnered only a solitary point. No team in the last decade has made the semifinals after losing even their first two games in the Jubilee Cup round so the fact that Tawa are even in position to do that, let alone control their own fate in the same manner that OBU and Wainuiomata can, is remarkable. They have named an unchanged starting 15 from the side that beat OBU last Saturday.

Aside from winning themselves (and preferably with a bonus point in order to head off Wellington) the Rams need a bunch of other results to then fall their way, chiefly Poneke to beat Wainuiomata and for whoever loses out of Ories and OBU to not get bonus points. They also have to overcome their strangely poor form at home this season where they have won just once in seven outings, which came over Paremata-Plimmerton in the Swindale. They did however beat Tawa 20-15 when the two met at Fraser Park in the first of the night rounds way back in early April; their side tomorrow has five changes from last week with the most notable Hayden Schrijvers moving out to #10 from his usual halfback spot.

Jubilee Cup head-to-head tiebreakers

MSP (over): None. If tied with either Poneke or Ories they will be lower seeding. (No other team can catch them)
Poneke: MSP, Tawa, Upper Hutt
Ories: MSP, Poneke, Tawa
Tawa: Wainuiomata, Wellington, OBU
Wainuiomata: Wellington, Upper Hutt, Ories
OBU: Wainuiomata, Wellington, Poneke
Upper Hutt Rams: OBU, Ories
Wellington: Upper Hutt (also Poneke but cannot catch them on points)

Premier 2 Hardham Cup

Although three of the semi-finalists were known before last weekend, potentially each of the four games has something riding on it going into tomorrow.

First up is the 12.30 kickoff game at Evans Bay. Paremata-Plimmerton's (13 points) win last week over Johnsonville combined with Avalon's loss has put them in the box seat. A win over MSP B (9) will assure them of the last playoff place, something the club has never previously achieved. However MSP are not out of it themselves and would claim the final playoff berth if they were to win and at least finish tied on competition points with Pare-Plim, and if Avalon to lose to OBU.

If Pare-Plim are successful, then that would relegate Avalon's (11) trip to the Basin Reserve to take on OBU B to dead-rubber status. However if MSP prevail, then a win for the Wolves will see them claim the remaining berth; and they will know where they stand before their game kicks off. Even if the earlier result means they can no longer qualify, they'll still want to end the year on a positive note, and although the Goats are already out of contention they will want to claim one Premier scalp on the year before they retire to the familiar pasture of the Cambridge Hotel for the offseason.

Out at the Petone Rec Petone (25) and Norths (26) go into their game already aware that barring an upset up the road, they will be facing each other next week. What is at stake is the right to host that match and maybe a psychological edge to go with it. Both sides ran up 50+ point scorelines last Saturday, but a reasonable expectation will be for a tighter match this time out. The notable change for Petone is the absence of Mateaki Kafatolu, while Norths have just two, both in the backline with Konelio Feaunati in midfield and Liki Siliga onto the wing.

Across the bridge Hutt Old Boys Marist (29) will look to wrap up top spot when they take on Johnsonville (9) at the Hutt Rec, and with it the right to host the fourth-qualifier next week. Remarkably the Hawks can still make the semifinals but would need a set of circumstances starting with a Pare-Plim loss and a bonus-point win here, for that to happen. The Eagles have named what looks a full-strength

The last three games above are all 2.15pm kickoffs

Premier Reserve Ed Chaney and HD Morgan Cups

Once again there's a mix of intra-division and crossover games in the second-tier tomorrow. In the pair of Ed Chaney matchups leaders the Upper Hutt Rams take on Tawa in the early game at Maidstone, while Petone and Norths face each other at the Petone Rec in games that could have implications on their playoffs in a few weeks, especially since Hutt Old Boys Marist face winless Johnsonville in one of the crossover fixtures.

The other Ed Chaney side, Poneke, will look to get back into the winner's circle after last week's last-minute loss, but face a tricky one away at HD Morgan table-toppers Wainuiomata. The remaining matches are both HD Morgan clashes with Avalon and Wellington meeting on the neutral ground of Kilbirnie Park (done in order to facilitate each team being able to provide back-up to their Premiers) and Oriental-Rongotai and Paremata-Plimmerton providing the early entertainment at Polo.

All six Premier Reserve matches kickoff at 12.30pm.

Colts John E Kelly Memorial

With just two rounds left before the playoffs Old Boys-University Green and Tawa have finally managed to get a gap on the field, and both could not only confirm themselves as semifinalists with wins this weekend, but could also ensure that they will host those matches as well. Both also have away fixtures tomorrow, with OBU at Porirua Park to take on Norths and Tawa at Kilbirnie against Poneke; Norths need to win to keep their own chances alive, while Poneke's surprising loss to Wellington has them now on the outside looking in.

Elsewhere MSP will look to stay just ahead of the pack behind them when they take on Wellington on the Evans Bay artificial, while there is a massive clash up at Maidstone Park as the Upper Hutt Rams and Oriental-Rongotai meet in a match that will determine which goes into the box seat for the playoff places ahead of the final round next week. All four of these matches kickoff at 12.30pm.

The fifth match of the round is tonight, with winless sides Johnsonville and Hutt Old Boys Marist meeting under lights at Alex Moore Park at 7.30pm.

Under 85kg Paul Potiki Shield

The tightest completion in the lower grades remains that of the lightweights, as just nine points covers the top six with just two rounds left before the playoffs. Despite losing last weekend Tawa will stay on top and bank five points this weekend with the Upper Hutt Rams having to default to them, but with the bye to come they face two weeks without game time leading into the playoffs. Wellington is a point back in second but has a game in hand, and they take on Poneke who might need to win to stay in semi-finals contention at Hataitai. The same applies to Avalon who travel up the coast to take on the Kapiti side in Waikanae.

The remaining clash is at Helston Park where Johnsonville and Eastbourne will meet in a game with playoff implications and the hosts, like Wellington, could secure a semifinals place with a win and join Tawa in the last four. All four matches are at 12.30pm, and the OBU Bunnies have the bye this week.

First Grade Johnsonville Centennium Cup

Like the Colts and 85s the First Graders have just two weeks left in their season before the playoffs. The Petone Brotherhood only just held onto their perfect record in beating HOBM 40-38, but in doing so they have secured home advantage for the playoffs. They take on Avalon on the Rec at 2.15pm before having the bye in the last round.

In tomorrow's other games HOBM and Norths will battle it out on the Hutt Rec at 12.30, where despite winning on Saturday Norths were passed in the standings by the Eagles after Norths were docked 6 points by the WRFU for disciplinary matters, with the consequence that this game is now of real interest to the semifinal picture. The other team that is in that mix - Old Boys-University - take on MSP on the St Pats College turf at 2.15pm, with the fourth game of the day an early one (12.30pm) on the Petone Rec as bottom pair the Petone Saxons and Tawa go in search of their first win. Poneke has this week's bye.

WelTec Premiership

While there isn't any college rugby this weekend owing to the school holidays, there are two games in the Premiership next week to conclude the round-robin. At 2pm on Tuesday afternoon Wellington College plays Bishop Viard in a match deferred from before the holidays; College are already assured a bye through to the semi-finals and can wrap-up top spot with a win, while Viard need to win with a bonus point to leapfrog Wairarapa College and make the playoffs.

On Wednesday is one of the eagerly awaited matches of every season, the Traditional between the two St Patrick's schools, Town and Silverstream. This year the match is at Evans Bay and is being televised on Sky TV, and while it will have little bearing on the standings and playoff picture - Town are already through to the semifinal stage and Silverstream will host Rongotai in the quarterfinal playoffs next weekend - pride and bragging rights will be at stake. Town haven't won this match for several years, though only ten days after losing this match 10-30 last year they ended Silverstream's season by winning their semifinal contest 23-20 en route to claiming the local title. That game kicks off at 12.40pm.